The resignation of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo as premier on Sunday in line with the Kampala Accord was supposed to help resolve internal squabbling that has hobbled the government, but the fighting has continued and looks set to intensify as President Sheik Sharif Sheikh Ahmed looks to name a new cabinet.
The Kampala Accord saw parliamentary speaker, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, agree to withdraw his opposition to an election delay in return for Farmajo’s departure and the formation of a new cabinet stuffed with Aden’s allies. Sheikh Sharif, Aden, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and the UN special envoy to Somalia, Augustine P Mahiga, all signed the deal.
Farmajo’s initially refused to quit and demanded a vote of confidence, but insiders say his resignation was based on the realization that the forces standing against him would have made it impossible for him to fulfill his functions even if he were to survive a vote in the parliament – an outcome that was unlikely given Aden’s control of many lawmakers. But the widespread protests in his support by Somalis all over the world motivated him to remain in Somalia.
Aden still unhappy
Yet Aden is not comfortable with the lurking presence of Farmajo, and literally wants him as far away as possible. The speaker, not content with forcing out Farmajo, is also unhappy about Acting Prime Minister Abdiwali Mohamed Ali, believing the former premier influenced this selection.
A lawmaker told Somalia Report that Sheikh Sharif and Aden met Monday over the acting prime minister, who will serve for the maximum of 30 days stipulated in the Kampala Accord for a successor to be named, and may be a candidate for the job full-time.
“The speaker is reluctant about the proposed PM,” Ali Mohamud (Seko), told Somalia Report. “What I don’t understand is why it is the business of the speaker to select a premier.”
Farmajo fear
A close associate of Farmajo told Somalia Report that Aden and his allies (mainly members of the old Sharmarke cabinet) are not happy that Abdiwali, like the former premier, is from the western-educated elite and friends with Farmajo.
“By appointing Abdiwali, the speaker and his allies fear he will rule like Farmajo and northing might change,” the source said.
The speaker also proposed a cash offer of $1 million and a job offer as Somalia’s Ambassador to the UN, based in Nairobi, for the premier, and pressured AMISOM to threaten to remove Farmajo’s security if he did not quit, a source in the premier’s office said.
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Before he arrived back in Mogadishu on Monday, the speaker was reported to be busy lobbying to get the support of as many lawmakers as possible to ensure parliament would support the Kampala Accord and the resignation of the prime minister should the question be submitted to a vote.
“Now Farmajo has gone but the disputes will not come to an end,” an official from TFG, who asked not to be named, told Somalia Report.
“The two Sharifs will not agree often, and this could lead to wider disputes that could make one of them resign,” he added. “This is not new to the Somali government, because more than five prime ministers have resigned over the last decade.”
Three years ago, a rift developed between then-prime minister, Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke and the speaker Adan Mohamed Nuur Madobe, which culminated in the speaker's departure after parliament voted to remove him from office. Last year, Sharmarke stepped down, ending a long wrangle with Sheik Sharif, which came as the result of a rift over a new draft constitution to replace the interim charter. These battles were typical of governments supposedly put in place to bring peace and order to Somalia.
Battle for power
The expected reshuffle of the Cabinet will open a new period of competition and tension at the top level of the Transitional Federal Institutions. Struggles for influence in the new cabinet will stimulate high political tensions among allies of the speaker and Sheikh Sharif. Farmajo will remain a factor if he stays in Mogadishu for the one-year TFG mandate extension.
The power-sharing agreement between the president and the speaker might also lead to a reshuffle of the top positions within the security forces, which could lead to the temporary paralysis of the TFG security forces.
Suleiman Isak, a Nairobi-based security consultant, predicts clan and militia loyalty matters will also be apparent in any reshuffle within the TFG’s security apparatus.
“Obviously some of the clans and former warlords who currently serve in the TFG forces will not be happy with the reshuffle,” he said.
Kampala Accord will be ignored
According to political analyst Muktar Sahal, the accord is already a shambles and the leaders need to give the Somali people their say instead of constantly extending their mandate and vying for power.
“This accord, which I believe is unfair to the community, is centered on a one-year extension of the TFG term (August 2011 - August 2012) and election of top leadership next August,” he told Somalia Report. “It is also a reality that the transitional federal parliament ... cannot exist forever and forge the politics in Somalia.”
TFG leaders say the transitional period will end next August, with the adoption of an interim constitution distilled from the Djibouti constitution, current charter and past constitutions.
According to Article 32(1) of the current charter, the period (term of office) of the parliament shall be five years. Also Article 32(4) of the interim charter states that the period of the parliament cannot be extended and/or increased. Sahal believes the flagrant disregard of the current charter shows exactly how much respect the Kampala Accord will be given.
“The way they are playing with the constitution will be the way they will play with the Kampala Accord,” he said.
Speaker's supporters
Despite that fact that a large section of the Somali population are against the speaker whom they say is "Milkilaa Wadankaa" (the owner of the country), he still has a strong dominance among other areas where he is considered a hero with many Somali officials and generals including Mohamed Dhere (former warlord), Abdiweli Sheikh Ibrahim (Deputy Speaker of Somalia) and General Yusuf Mohamed Siad (Indhacade) who greeted the speaker at the airport on Sunday (photo).
Rashid Nuune also contribued to this report.